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Toto, We’re Not in Oklahoma Anymore

Our research team’s mantra has been “expect the unexpected” since the market sell off began in earnest in early March. That is because this downcycle has begun with an unprecedented collapse in a wide range of business activities at a time when the world has never been awash in more [...]

2020-06-17T20:32:13+00:00April 23rd, 2020|

CHANGES IN THE RULES OF THE GAME

“I was particularly focusing on changes in the rules of the game, not in playing by one particular set of rules but understanding when new rules came into being—and learning that before others did.” – George Soros If you doubted for a moment that we are in a downturn of [...]

2020-04-30T15:27:10+00:00April 23rd, 2020|

The Shopping List

New Rochelle, New York is a small city about 25 minutes north of Manhattan. My family has called it home for many years. I and my wife attended the local public high school pictured below. New RochelleAfter the Coronavirus outbreak, New Rochelle gained notoriety it had not had probably since [...]

2020-06-17T20:32:29+00:00March 27th, 2020|

The Real March Madness

“Anyone can hold the helm when the sea is calm.” – Publilius Syrus Three weeks ago, many equity markets were at all-time highs.  As of this morning, the S&P 500 is down 25% year to date in what feels like the fastest decline in the history of declines.  Financial markets [...]

2020-06-17T20:31:06+00:00March 20th, 2020|

Belaboring Labor Market Uncertainty

A few days ago, while driving to work, I heard an interview on Bloomberg radio with Randall Kroszner, an economist from the University of Chicago.  He was asked about the how the labor market was faring.  He replied that he saw many positive signs.  To paraphrase the dialogue, Dr. [...]

2020-06-17T20:32:45+00:00January 30th, 2020|