Trends & Tail Risks

GREECE: THE BANK’S PROBLEM?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner | February 11, 2015 “If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem.  If you owe the bank $100 million that’s the bank’s problem.” -J. Paul Getty “Nothing endures but change.” -Heraclitus We have been writing frequently about the unfolding problems in Greece since we highlighted […]

NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner | February 4, 2015 “If quantum mechanics hasn’t profoundly shocked you, you haven’t understood it yet.” -Niels Bohr, 1922 Winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics; Father of Quantum Mechanics “Everything we call real is made of things that cannot be regarded as real.” -Niels Bohr “Every great and […]

GÖTTERDÄMMERUNG: TWILIGHT OF THE ALL-POWERFUL CENTRAL BANKERS?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  January 28, 2015 “What experience and history teach is this – that nations and governments have never learned anything from history, or acted upon any lessons they might have drawn from it.” -Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel “This is what happens when you humiliate […]

HEROIC INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  January 21, 2015 “As you get older it is harder to have heroes, but it is sort of necessary.”  -Ernest Hemingway When it comes to heroes in the investing business, you have to be very careful.  History is filled with cautionary tales of […]

THE DEBT HURRICANE

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  January 14, 2015 “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, and then suddenly.” -Ernest Hemingway, “The Sun Also Rises” I have always been fascinated by the weather.  Where does it come from?  How does it change so quickly?  […]

LUCK FAVORS THE PREPARED

By Lewis Johnson – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  January 7, 2015 “Luck’s way is not my way.” -Theocritus The dreaded polar vortex is back in the news again this week.  Temperatures are plummeting across the nation – with, of course, the welcome exception of our own sunny Naples.  Understandably our neighbors […]

UNIQUELY AMERICAN OUTPERFORMANCE?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  December 24, 2014 “The basic need of the creator is independence. The reasoning mind cannot work under any form of compulsion. It cannot be curbed, sacrificed or subordinated to any consideration whatsoever. It demands total independence in function and in motive.”  -Ayn Rand, “The […]

FALSE NARRATIVE: THE MYTH OF ALL-POWERFUL CENTRAL BANKS?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  December 17, 2014 “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”  -Napoleon Bonaparte I have studied Napoleon Bonaparte, one of history’s most interesting people, since I was a teenager.  By sheer genius, relentless opportunism, and incredible force of will, Napoleon rose from […]

FORBIDDEN FRUIT

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  December 10, 2014 “Adam was but human — this explains it all. He did not want the apple for the apple’s sake, he wanted it only because it was forbidden. The mistake was in not forbidding the serpent; then he would have eaten the […]

CRUDE OIL’S BLACK FRIDAY

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  December 3, 2014 “The unfortunate features of the oil history of Pennsylvania have been repeated in the later history of almost every other producing region.  There has been the same instability in the industry, the same recurrent or chronic over-production, the same wide fluctuations […]

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