Trends & Tail Risks

THE ILLUSION OF ATTENTION

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner | March 11, 2015 “Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”  -George Soros “If you do not expect the unexpected you will not find it, for it is not to […]

CONTANGO FANDANGO

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner | March 4, 2015 “If all my possessions were taken from me, with one exception, I would choose to keep the power of communication, for by it, I would soon regain all the rest.”  -Daniel Webster “I like to listen.  I have learned a great deal […]

SECULAR TRENDS UNITING?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner | February 25, 2015 “I wonder whether any other generation has seen such astounding revolutions of data and values as those through which we have lived.  Scarcely anything material or established which I was brought up to believe was permanent and vital, has lasted.  Everything I […]

THE POWER OF CONTINUOUS LEARNING

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner | February 18, 2015 “The child is not a prisoner of its inheritance; it holds its inheritance as a new creation which its future actions will unfold.” – Jacob Bronoswki “First principle: never to let one’s self be beaten down by persons or by events.” […]

GREECE: THE BANK’S PROBLEM?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner | February 11, 2015 “If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem.  If you owe the bank $100 million that’s the bank’s problem.” -J. Paul Getty “Nothing endures but change.” -Heraclitus We have been writing frequently about the unfolding problems in Greece since we highlighted […]

NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner | February 4, 2015 “If quantum mechanics hasn’t profoundly shocked you, you haven’t understood it yet.” -Niels Bohr, 1922 Winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics; Father of Quantum Mechanics “Everything we call real is made of things that cannot be regarded as real.” -Niels Bohr “Every great and […]

GÖTTERDÄMMERUNG: TWILIGHT OF THE ALL-POWERFUL CENTRAL BANKERS?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  January 28, 2015 “What experience and history teach is this – that nations and governments have never learned anything from history, or acted upon any lessons they might have drawn from it.” -Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel “This is what happens when you humiliate […]

HEROIC INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  January 21, 2015 “As you get older it is harder to have heroes, but it is sort of necessary.”  -Ernest Hemingway When it comes to heroes in the investing business, you have to be very careful.  History is filled with cautionary tales of […]

THE DEBT HURRICANE

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  January 14, 2015 “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, and then suddenly.” -Ernest Hemingway, “The Sun Also Rises” I have always been fascinated by the weather.  Where does it come from?  How does it change so quickly?  […]

LUCK FAVORS THE PREPARED

By Lewis Johnson – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  January 7, 2015 “Luck’s way is not my way.” -Theocritus The dreaded polar vortex is back in the news again this week.  Temperatures are plummeting across the nation – with, of course, the welcome exception of our own sunny Naples.  Understandably our neighbors […]

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