Trends & Tail Risks

INVESTING SAFELY IN AN UNSAFE WORLD

By Lewis Johnson – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  December 30, 2016 “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.  It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” -Mark Twain “Shut up!  Shut up!  I am busy!” -Message of the Titanic’s radio-operator to the ship radioing a […]

JUNK BOND TURMOIL: THE AGE OF CONSEQUENCES

By Lewis Johnson – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  December 16, 2015 “The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays is coming to its close.  In its place we are entering a period of consequences.” -Sir Winston Churchill “Ability is nothing without opportunity.” -Napoleon “There are no […]

BOND MARKET: TURNING JAPANESE?

By Lewis Johnson – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  December 2, 2015 “Anyone who isn’t confused doesn’t really understand the situation.” -Edward R. Murrow “I have abandoned free market principles to save the free market system.” – President George W. Bush on the reasoning behind massive government intervention in the markets in […]

INTERPLAY OF CYCLES: INVENTORY RESTOCKING VS. LONG-TERM DEBT CYCLE

By Lewis Johnson – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  November 18, 2015 “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes.  A wise man learns from the mistakes of others.” – Bismarck “Everything tends towards catastrophe and collapse. I am interested, geared up and happy. Is it not horrible to be made like […]

INTEREST RATES: THE MARKET LEADS AND THE FED FOLLOWS

By Lewis Johnson – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  November 4, 2015 “I have no special talents.  I am only passionately curious.” -Einstein “It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.” -Thoreau “The scientist is not a person who gives the right answers, he’s one who asks the […]

HAVE WE SEEN THE PEAK?

By Lewis Johnson – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  October 21, 2015 Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” -Churchill “The man with a new idea is a crank until the idea succeeds.” -Mark Twain […]

WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE? THE GOLD / SILVER RATIO WEIGHS IN

By Lewis Johnson – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  October 7, 2015 October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” -Mark Twain – Pudd’nhead Wilson’s Calendar “The longer you look back the […]

CREDITORS IN THE CROSSHAIRS?

By Lewis Johnson – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  September 23, 2015 “Democracy and capitalism are inherently in conflict, and the conflict between the two is a source of major structural changes in the U.S. economy and secular trends in asset performance.” -Paul McCulley “The gift of democracy to capitalism is property rights.  […]

EQUITY MARKET VOLATILITY (FINALLY) CATCHES UP TO CREDIT MARKET VOLATILITY

By Lewis Johnson – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  September 9, 2015 “The risks of the world being at or near the end of its long-term debt cycle are significant.” -Ray Dalio – Chairman of Bridgewater, World’s Largest Hedge Fund “While we don’t know if we have just passed the key turning point, […]

LONG TERM OUTPERFORMANCE

By Lewis Johnson – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  August 19, 2015 “To raise new questions, new possibilities, to regard old problems from a new angle, requires creative imagination and marks real advance in science.” – Albert Einstein “No one should teach who is not in love with teaching.” – Margaret Sangster “Education […]

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