Trends & Tail Risks

The Rise of the Robots?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | February 23,2017 “Life imitates art far more than art imitates life.” -Oscar Wilde “Prediction is difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”  -Nobel Prize Winning Physicist Niels Bohr, the Father of Quantum Mechanics “Its kind of fun to sit there and out think people […]

Is Low Volatility Sustainable with Populists in Power?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | February 9,2017 “Populism is the number one economic issue that market participants should be watching, more important than central banks,” said Dalio. “I want to be loud and clear—populism scares me.” -Ray Dalio “Lead the ideas of your time and they will accompany and […]

The Message of the Yield Curve

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | January 26,2017 “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” -Sir John Templeton “None of the usual economic or psychological conditions for an investment bubble are being met, yet the current price (of the U.S. stock market) […]

Activity Does Not Equal Progress: The Value of Patience and the Importance of Valuation

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | January 12,2017 “Measure three times and cut once” -Accepted wisdom from carpentry “It’s not how far you fall, but how high you bounce that counts.”  -Zig Ziglar “All of life is peaks and valleys. Don’t let the peaks get too high and the valleys too […]

Trumpnomics on International Trade: The Times They Are a Changing

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | December 28, 2016 “Come gather ‘round people Wherever you roam And admit that the waters Around you have grown And accept it that soon You’ll be drenched to the bone If your time to you Is worth savin’ Then you better start swimmin’ Or you’ll sink like […]

Navigating Confused Seas

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | December 15, 2016 “A smooth sea never made a skillful sailor.” -Franklin D. Roosevelt “Confused sea conditions occur as a result of major shifts in wind direction that occur quickly.  This causes waves coming from differing directions, resulting in waves that are irregular and unpredictable.”  -David […]

Bearish to Bullish: Opportunities in Steel

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | November 30, 2016 “There is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under the heavens.” -Ecclesiastes 3:1 “No one that encounters prosperity does not also encounter danger.”  -Heraclitus “If you don’t like the weather…, just wait a few minutes.”   -Mark Twain […]

Bond Weakness Is a Temporary Setback and Not the Cycle’s End

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | November 17, 2016 “The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults.” -Alexis de Tocqueville “I predict future happiness for Americans, if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors […]

A Bull Market in Populism and De-Globalization

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | November 3, 2016 “After sighing for a long time in secret, they [the people] at last begin to groan, and now finally to cry out in universal protest.” -Cicero’s Letters to Atticus “Nothing is as popular nowadays as hatred for “popular” politicians.”  -Cicero’s Letters to […]

Oil Investing, Rockefeller Style

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | October 19, 2016 “The way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets.” -John D. Rockefeller “Experience is a jewel, and it had need be so, for it is often purchased at an infinite rate.”  -Shakespeare “The fool will be […]

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