Trends & Tail Risks

The Inventory Cycle Turns Down (Part Two)

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | May 17, 2017 “Gentlemen prefer bonds.” -Andrew Mellon, Hoover’s Secretary of the Treasury “History is written by the winners.”  -George Orwell “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”   -Economist Herbert Stein “I have the feeling that the sands are running out.” […]

Preparing for the Peak of the Inventory Cycle

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | May 4, 2017 “The end was contained in the beginning.” -George Orwell’s 1984 “All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called ‘guessing […]

Hippocratic Investing: First Do No Harm

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | April 20, 2017 “Just because you can doesn’t mean you should.” -Sherrilyn Kennyon “Missing a train is only painful if you run after it!”  -Nassim Taleb “A bend in the road is not the end of the road…unless you fail to make the turn.” […]

Clients Are an Investment Firm’s Most Important Assets

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | April 6, 2017 “(This is so bad) It isn’t even wrong” -Wolfgang Pauli, Nobel Prize Winning Physicist “Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come.”  -Victor Hugo “People don’t really start businesses.  They start crusades and then others respond because they understand that […]

An Investment Lesson from Homer’s Odyssey

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | March 23, 2017 “You hit homeruns not by chance but by preparation.” -Roger Maris, who held the record for most homeruns in a Major League Baseball season for over thirty years “Success depends upon previous preparation, and without such preparation there is sure to […]

Understand Your Investment Decision

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | March 9, 2017 “An expert is a person who has found out by his own painful experience all the mistakes one can make in a very narrow field.” -Niels Bohr, Nobel Prize Winning Physicist and Founder of Quantum Mechanics “That which does not kill […]

The Rise of the Robots?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | February 23,2017 “Life imitates art far more than art imitates life.” -Oscar Wilde “Prediction is difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”  -Nobel Prize Winning Physicist Niels Bohr, the Father of Quantum Mechanics “Its kind of fun to sit there and out think people […]

Is Low Volatility Sustainable with Populists in Power?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | February 9,2017 “Populism is the number one economic issue that market participants should be watching, more important than central banks,” said Dalio. “I want to be loud and clear—populism scares me.” -Ray Dalio “Lead the ideas of your time and they will accompany and […]

The Message of the Yield Curve

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | January 26,2017 “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” -Sir John Templeton “None of the usual economic or psychological conditions for an investment bubble are being met, yet the current price (of the U.S. stock market) […]

Activity Does Not Equal Progress: The Value of Patience and the Importance of Valuation

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | January 12,2017 “Measure three times and cut once” -Accepted wisdom from carpentry “It’s not how far you fall, but how high you bounce that counts.”  -Zig Ziglar “All of life is peaks and valleys. Don’t let the peaks get too high and the valleys too […]

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