Trends & Tail Risks

PRICES ALLOCATE RESOURCES

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  June 25, 2014 Prices are everywhere.  We pay prices when we want to buy things such as groceries, cars, houses, stocks and bonds.  But what else should we consider with respect to prices?  Prices are also the most powerful and efficient allocator of resources […]

SIMPLICITY

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner |  June 18, 2014 “You do not really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother.” Albert Einstein Sometimes it’s very difficult to get down to the simple fundamental truths that underlie even the most complex situations. Nowhere in the financial world is […]

FROM THE ANALYST’S TOOLKIT: REPLACEMENT COST VALUATION

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  June 11, 2014 Investing is an exercise in decision making under uncertainty.  We use a variety of tools to minimize uncertainty and increase the odds that our investments are successful.  One of the most important tools is valuation, the act of calculating what a company […]

GHOSTS OF INVERGORDON?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  June 4, 2014 Mark Twain once said, “History does not repeat itself but it does rhyme.”  This week we examine a precedent from 1931 for clues to the political debate underway now in Europe. We consider whether recent elections in Europe are ‘rhyming’ […]

MAKING VOLATILITY OUR FRIEND: TRADING THE KITCHIN CYCLE

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  May 28, 2014 Cycles and their changing phases are everywhere around us.  The twenty-four hour daily cycle comprises the opposites of day and night.  The seasons transition from the cool of winter to the opposite heat of summer, before swinging around again back […]

BIG PROBLEMS START SMALL

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner |  May 21, 2014 Last week the Greek bond market took a beating after almost two full years of constant improvement.  This week’s Trends and Tail Risks explains why you should care and what we are watching for next.  The chart below shows the […]

BOND MARKET CLUES

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  May 14, 2014 Investing wisely is challenging. But better information helps. Knowing is better than guessing! When we train our new analysts we never fail to explain to them that investing is an exercise in decision making under uncertainty. The goal of our research is […]

WHAT DOES THE BOND MARKET KNOW?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer  |  May 07, 2014 Yields on US government 30 year bond have defied consensus expectations by falling almost 50 basis points (bps) year to date from a high of 3.98% to 3.45%. Falling long term interest rates have resulted in an 10% capital gain to those holding US […]

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