Trends & Tail Risks

OUR BOND STRATEGY: THE POWER OF DURATION

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  October 8, 2014 “The holy passion of Friendship is of so sweet and steady and loyal and enduring a nature that it will last through a whole lifetime, if not asked to lend money.”  -Mark Twain – Pudd’nhead Wilson’s Calendar Frequent readers of […]

REVISITING THE INVENTORY CYCLE

 By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  October 1, 2014 “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” -Mark Twain – Pudd’nhead Wilson’s Calendar Inventory Destocking Cycle Kicks Off with […]

THE DARK SIDE OF CHINA?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  September 24, 2014 “For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.” Sir Isaac Newton’s Third Law of Motion China has been a powerhouse economy for the last several decades, astounding the world with its economic growth.  China has pulled off the […]

UNSUSTAINABLE STEEL PREMIUMS

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  September 3, 2014 Cycles are a prominent factor in much of our research on commodity driven companies. This is no accident.  Commodity markets are always seeking balance between the fundamental forces of supply and demand. However that doesn’t mean that markets are always […]

SIR ISAAC NEWTON: VISIONARY SCIENTIST, LOUSY INVESTOR

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  August 27, 2014 “I can calculate the movement of stars but not the madness of men.” – Sir Isaac Newton Sir Isaac Newton’s genius was staggering. In the early 1700s, he created the scientific method by which all science proceeds through hypothesis testing and […]

GOLD: LESSONS FROM THE DEPRESSION

By LEWIS JOHNSON -President, Co-Founder & Partner | August 20, 2014 Last week’s Trends and Tailrisks noted that there is more money to be made being long the solution than there is in shorting the problem. We are convinced that over indebtedness is the world’s greatest financial problem. Weakening credit quality […]

CREDIT: CAUGHT LEANING?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner |  August 13, 2014 They would say, when Whitey Ford made that incredible motion to nip the base runner off first, that the man was caught leaning. The man was leaning one way, and realized what was happening, and yearned to go the other way, […]

IS CREDIT QUALITY PEAKING?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  August 6, 2014 “Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune.” Jim Rohn The U.S. stock market just suffered its worst week in more than two years.  Is this just short term volatility, or is there a deeper […]

QUANTITATIVE EASING: PERCEPTION VS. REALITY

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  July 30, 2014 The US Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing (QE) program of bond buying has been one of its most controversial policies in recent years. In this week’s Trends and Tail Risks, we examine QE by studying its impact upon the yield of 30-year […]

GOLD: PRICE VS. RELATIVE VALUE

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  July 24, 2014 After a long hiatus, gold’s quiet outperformance (up 9.6% YTD) is slowly working its way back into the financial pages. However, gold took its time getting back there. After all, the price of gold fell 38% from its peak in […]

Stay connected with us