Trends & Tail Risks

THE VALUE OF PATIENCE

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  November 26, 2014 “Genius is eternal patience.” –Michelangelo One of my first mentors in the investment business told me that “There are many ways to make money in the market. There is no one right way.”  I was surprised to hear this from him of […]

BALANCING INSIGHT WITH TIMING

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  November 19, 2014 “Science advances one funeral at a time.”  -Max Planck, Nobel Prize Winner in Physics, 1918 I have been watching with interest the European Space Agency’s “Philae” probe, which recently landed on a comet (of all things) after a ten year […]

FALLING STEEL & ENERGY PRICES: GOOD OR BAD?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  November 5, 2014 “Life is not a spectacle or a feast; it is a predicament.”  -George Santayana Investing is an exercise in decision making under uncertainty. How do we reach an intelligent conclusion now, in the present, about an investment whose performance can truly only […]

A QUESTION OF CONFIDENCE

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  October 29, 2014 “I suspect everyone and I suspect no one.”  -Inspector Jacques Clouseau, “A Shot in the Dark,” 1964 Markets have been on a wild ride the last few weeks.  Is a trend change underway or is this just “noise?”  Our view […]

MARKET RAIDS AND WEAK LINKS

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  October 22, 2014 “When you raid a cathouse, you take the piano player too.”  -Sheriff Buford T. Justice, Smokey and the Bandit II We always manage our investments with an eye to where we are in the cycle. That discipline is proving highly […]

MID CYCLE CORRECTION OR SERIOUS DOWNTURN?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  October 15, 2014 “I made my money by selling too soon.”  -Bernard Baruch Could Fed Mistakes Turn An Inventory Destocking Cycle Into Something Worse? The S&P 500 has fallen more than 7% in the last three weeks, erasing almost all the market’s advance […]

OUR BOND STRATEGY: THE POWER OF DURATION

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  October 8, 2014 “The holy passion of Friendship is of so sweet and steady and loyal and enduring a nature that it will last through a whole lifetime, if not asked to lend money.”  -Mark Twain – Pudd’nhead Wilson’s Calendar Frequent readers of […]

REVISITING THE INVENTORY CYCLE

 By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  October 1, 2014 “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” -Mark Twain – Pudd’nhead Wilson’s Calendar Inventory Destocking Cycle Kicks Off with […]

THE DARK SIDE OF CHINA?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  September 24, 2014 “For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.” Sir Isaac Newton’s Third Law of Motion China has been a powerhouse economy for the last several decades, astounding the world with its economic growth.  China has pulled off the […]

UNSUSTAINABLE STEEL PREMIUMS

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  September 3, 2014 Cycles are a prominent factor in much of our research on commodity driven companies. This is no accident.  Commodity markets are always seeking balance between the fundamental forces of supply and demand. However that doesn’t mean that markets are always […]

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