Trends & Tail Risks

UNIQUELY AMERICAN OUTPERFORMANCE?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  December 24, 2014 “The basic need of the creator is independence. The reasoning mind cannot work under any form of compulsion. It cannot be curbed, sacrificed or subordinated to any consideration whatsoever. It demands total independence in function and in motive.”  -Ayn Rand, “The […]

FALSE NARRATIVE: THE MYTH OF ALL-POWERFUL CENTRAL BANKS?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  December 17, 2014 “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”  -Napoleon Bonaparte I have studied Napoleon Bonaparte, one of history’s most interesting people, since I was a teenager.  By sheer genius, relentless opportunism, and incredible force of will, Napoleon rose from […]

FORBIDDEN FRUIT

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  December 10, 2014 “Adam was but human — this explains it all. He did not want the apple for the apple’s sake, he wanted it only because it was forbidden. The mistake was in not forbidding the serpent; then he would have eaten the […]

CRUDE OIL’S BLACK FRIDAY

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  December 3, 2014 “The unfortunate features of the oil history of Pennsylvania have been repeated in the later history of almost every other producing region.  There has been the same instability in the industry, the same recurrent or chronic over-production, the same wide fluctuations […]

THE VALUE OF PATIENCE

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  November 26, 2014 “Genius is eternal patience.” –Michelangelo One of my first mentors in the investment business told me that “There are many ways to make money in the market. There is no one right way.”  I was surprised to hear this from him of […]

BALANCING INSIGHT WITH TIMING

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  November 19, 2014 “Science advances one funeral at a time.”  -Max Planck, Nobel Prize Winner in Physics, 1918 I have been watching with interest the European Space Agency’s “Philae” probe, which recently landed on a comet (of all things) after a ten year […]

FALLING STEEL & ENERGY PRICES: GOOD OR BAD?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  November 5, 2014 “Life is not a spectacle or a feast; it is a predicament.”  -George Santayana Investing is an exercise in decision making under uncertainty. How do we reach an intelligent conclusion now, in the present, about an investment whose performance can truly only […]

A QUESTION OF CONFIDENCE

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  October 29, 2014 “I suspect everyone and I suspect no one.”  -Inspector Jacques Clouseau, “A Shot in the Dark,” 1964 Markets have been on a wild ride the last few weeks.  Is a trend change underway or is this just “noise?”  Our view […]

MARKET RAIDS AND WEAK LINKS

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  October 22, 2014 “When you raid a cathouse, you take the piano player too.”  -Sheriff Buford T. Justice, Smokey and the Bandit II We always manage our investments with an eye to where we are in the cycle. That discipline is proving highly […]

MID CYCLE CORRECTION OR SERIOUS DOWNTURN?

By LEWIS JOHNSON – President, Co-Founder & Partner  |  October 15, 2014 “I made my money by selling too soon.”  -Bernard Baruch Could Fed Mistakes Turn An Inventory Destocking Cycle Into Something Worse? The S&P 500 has fallen more than 7% in the last three weeks, erasing almost all the market’s advance […]

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