Trends & Tail Risks

Homage to Catalonia

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | October 4, 2017 “The thing that had happened in Spain was, in fact, not merely a civil war, but the beginning of a revolution.” -George Orwell’s “Homage to Catalonia” “History is a child building a sandcastle by the sea, and that child is the […]

Hurricane Irma and the Limits of Prediction

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | September 20, 2017 “I made my money by selling too soon.” -Bernard Baruch “I get paid to get suspicious when I’ve got nothing to be suspicious about.”  -Wilford Brimley’s character, the head of security in “The Firm” “We need to stop, and admit it: […]

Rising Steel Prices: Arbitrage at Work in the Steel Markets

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | September 6, 2017 “When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?” -John Maynard Keynes “Bravery never goes out of fashion.”  -William Makepeace Thackeray   “If you recognize the statistical certainty that you will be wrong, it should be much […]

Legendary Value Investor John Neff: Investing into the Peak

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | August 23, 2017 “John Neff is the investment professional’s investment professional.  Nobody has ever managed a large mutual fund so very well for so very long a time. And no one is likely to do so ever again.” -Charles Ellis “The market can remain […]

Investing is a Team Sport

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | August 9, 2017 “The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.” -Warren Buffett “We have met the enemy and he is us.”  -Walt Kelly’s Pogo “The most important investment ability is an emotional discipline.”   -William Bernstein “If […]

The Discipline of Discomfort

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | July 26, 2017 “The more you seek the uncomfortable, the more comfortable you will become.” -Conor McGregor “The mind is its own place, and in it self/Can make a Heav’n of Hell, a Hell of Heav’n.”  -John Milton “Every adversity, every failure, every heartache […]

Our Firm was Named the Second Fastest Growing Investment Advisor in 2016! Thank You!

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | July 12, 2017 “People don’t really start businesses.  They start crusades and then others respond because they understand that this is special.” -David McWilliams “Lead the ideas of your time and they will accompany and support you; fall behind them and they drag you […]

Deeper Insight Through Indicators

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | June 28, 2017 “Timing is everything.” -Napoleon “The 10,000-hours rule says that if you look at any kind of cognitively complex field, from playing chess to being a neurosurgeon, we see this incredibly consistent pattern that you cannot be good at that unless you […]

Ask Better Questions to Make More Money

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | June 14, 2017 “Are all gold analysts libertarians?  Or do gold analysts become libertarians after studying gold?” “I’m not sure but there is definitely a strong correlation.” -My question to the gold analyst whose coverage I assumed in 2002 and his response. “We shall […]

Credit Watching: Exter’s Inverted Pyramid At Work

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | May 31, 2017 “The rain begins with a single drop.” -Manal al-Sharif “In my opinion, there are two key concepts that investors must master: value and cycles. For each asset you’re considering, you must have a strongly held view of its intrinsic value. When its […]

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