Trends & Tail Risks

The Most Powerful Research Tool is a Great Network

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | January 10, 2018 “Guessing a thing ain’t knowing a thing.” -Patrick Ness “Lots of people talk and few of them know…”  -Led Zeppelin’s Dazed and Confused “It’s not what you know; it’s who you know.”   -Accepted Proverbial Wisdom “If I have seen further it […]

Clients Deserve More Than “Conventional Failure”

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | December 27, 2017 “Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.” -John Maynard Keynes “It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer […]

Potash Corp: A Study in Patience

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | December 13, 2017 “But many who are first will be last, and the last, first.” -Mark 10:31 “The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”  -Benjamin Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor” “For everything there is a season, and a […]

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bond

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | November 29, 2017 “Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn’t.” -Mark Twain “Life imitates art far more than art imitates life.”  -Oscar Wilde “Gentlemen you can’t fight in here!  This is the War […]

Research Trip to Ireland Suggests Europe’s Financial Problems Are Not Over

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | November 15, 2017 “You don’t really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother.” -Albert Einstein “What’s in a name?”  -Juliet from Shakespeare’s “Romeo and Juliet” “My name is growing all the time, and I’ve lived a very long, long time; so […]

Don’t be a Turkey!

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | November 1, 2017 “One of the worst things that can happen in life is to win a bet on a horse at an early age.” -Danny McGoorty “The safest way to double your money is to fold it over once and put it in […]

Searching for Junonias: The Art of Rejection

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | October 18, 2017 “All truly great thoughts are conceived while walking.” -Nietzsche “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks.  The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”  -Mark Twain’s “Pudd’nhead Wilson” […]

Homage to Catalonia

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | October 4, 2017 “The thing that had happened in Spain was, in fact, not merely a civil war, but the beginning of a revolution.” -George Orwell’s “Homage to Catalonia” “History is a child building a sandcastle by the sea, and that child is the […]

Hurricane Irma and the Limits of Prediction

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | September 20, 2017 “I made my money by selling too soon.” -Bernard Baruch “I get paid to get suspicious when I’ve got nothing to be suspicious about.”  -Wilford Brimley’s character, the head of security in “The Firm” “We need to stop, and admit it: […]

Rising Steel Prices: Arbitrage at Work in the Steel Markets

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | September 6, 2017 “When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?” -John Maynard Keynes “Bravery never goes out of fashion.”  -William Makepeace Thackeray   “If you recognize the statistical certainty that you will be wrong, it should be much […]

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